Best picture 2016 odds

Best picture 2016 odds DEFAULT

Updated Academy Award Odds

Updated Academy Award Odds

The Academy Awards will take place at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood on Sunday, February 28 at PM eastern time. This marks the 88th year of the ceremony, which will be hosted by Chris Rock.

Awards will be handed out in 24 different categories ranging from Best Picture and Best Director to more technical awards such Best Editing and Best Visual Effects. There are five nominees for every category with the exception of Best Picture (which has eight nominees) and Best Hair and Makeup (which has just three nominees).

The Revenant leads all films with twelve Oscar nominations including Best Picture, Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio) and Best Director (Alejandro Iñárritu). Other notable films include Mad Max: Fury Road (10 nominations) and The Martian (7 nominations).

Bovada, one of the more public offshore sportsbooks, has posted odds for 14 different prop bets with fairly low limits. Bookmaker, considered to be one of the market-setting sportsbooks, has posted odds for seven of the awards with limits ranging from $ to $2,

Best Picture

MovieBookmaker (2/22)Bovada (2/22)
The Revenant
The Big Short++
Mad Max: Fury Road++
Bridge of Spies++
The Martian++

Best Actor

ActorMovieBovada (2/22)
Leonardo DiCaprioThe Revenant
Eddie RedmayneThe Danish Girl+
Michael FassbenderSteve Jobs+
Matt DamonThe Martian+
Bryan CranstonTrumbo+

Best Actress

ActorMovieBovada (2/22)
Brie LarsonRoom
Saoirse RonanBrooklyn+
Cate BlanchettCarol+
Jennifer LawrenceJoy+
Charlotte Rampling45 Years+

Best Supporting Actor

ActorMovieBookmaker (2/22)Bovada (2/22)
Sylvester StalloneCreed
Mark RylanceBridge of Spies++
Tom HardyThe RevenantN/A+
Christian BaleThe Big ShortN/A+
Mark RuffaloSpotlightN/A+

Best Supporting Actress

ActressMovieBookmaker (2/22)
Alicia VikanderThe Danish Girl
Kate WinsletSteve Jobs+
Rooney MaraCarol+

Best Director

DirectorMovieBovada (2/22)
Alejandro IñárrituThe Revenant
George MillerMad Max: Fury Road+
Adam McCayThe Big Short+
Thomas McCarthySpotlight+
Lenny AbrahamsonRoom+

Best Cinematography

MovieBovada (2/22)
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road+
The Hateful Eight+

Best Original Screenplay

MovieBookmaker (2/22)Bovada (2/22)
Inside Out++
Bridges of SpiesN/A+
Straight Outta ComptonN/A+
Ex MachinaN/A+

Best Adapted Screenplay

MovieBovada (2/22)
The Big Short
The Martian+

Best Visual Effects

MovieBookmaker (2/22)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Mad Max: Fury Road+

Best Film Editing

MovieBookmaker (2/22)
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Big Short+
The Revenant+

Best Costume Design

MovieBovada (2/22)
Mad Max: Fury Road+
The Danish Girl+
The Revenant+

Best Original Score

MovieBovada (2/22)
The Hateful Eight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens+
Bridge of Spies+

Best Original Song

SongMovieBovada (2/22)
Til It Happens To YouThe Hunting Ground
Writings on the WallSpectre+
Earned ItFifty Shades of Grey+
Simple Song 3Youth+
Manta RayRacing Extinction+

Best Animated Film

MovieBookmaker (2/22)Bovada (2/22)
Inside Out
Shaun The SheepN/A+
Boy and the WorldN/A+
When Marnie Was ThereN/A+

Best Documentary

MovieBovada (2/22)
Cartel Land+
The Look of Silence+
What Happened Miss Simone+
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom+

Best Foreign Language Film

MovieBovada (2/22)
Son of Saul
Embrace of the Serpent+
A War+

If you&#;re taking part in an Oscar pool, there are a few films that seem like locks:

  1. Best Animated Film: Inside Out (-9,)
  2. Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant (-5,)
  3. Best Actress: Brie Larson for Room (-2,)
  4. Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight (-1,)
  5. Best Foreign Language Film: Son of Saul (-1,)
  6. Best Cinematography: The Revenant (-1,)
  7. Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short (-1,)

Last year the oddsmakers were exceptionally accurate, with the favorite winning 20 of 24 categories. In fact, there were no major upsets and no award winner was listed at longer than + The list below displays the four surprises from the Academy Awards along with the favorite odds.

  1. Best Original Screenplay: Birdman (+) over The Grand Budapest Hotel ()
  2. Best Animated Film: Big Hero 6 (+) over How To Train Your Dragon 2 ()
  3. Best Original Score: The Grand Budapest Hotel (+) over The Theory of Everything ()
  4. Best Film Editing: Whiplash (+) over Boyhood ()

Based on these results, bettors should likely avoid taking many long shots this year. Readers may be dubious about my projections since several months ago (sight unseen) I assumed that Suffragette would be an Oscar contender and that Johnny Depp would revitalize his career with Black Mass. Looks like my projections were about as accurate as the Chicago Daily Tribune&#;s proclamation of &#;Dewey Defeats Truman.&#;

To be fair, I also thought that The Danish Girl&#;s Alicia Vikander was a good bet to win the Best Supporting Actress award when she was listed at + Today she&#;s the favorite at That bet alone should cover the rest of my dubious prognostications.

Although I loved The Revenant and agree that Leo deserves to win his first Academy Award, I think that Iñárritu&#;s odds are being slightly overvalued &#; especially since he won last year for Birdman. It&#;s not the typical Oscar movie, but Mad Max: Fury Road featured revolutionary visual effects and was arguably the most beautifully shot action movie that I have ever seen. For that reason, I actually think that there could be slight value on George Miller (+) winning the Best Director award.

It&#;s not one of the more popular categories, but Best Costume Design features three distinctly different films who accomplished incredible feats. Carol (+) unbelievably captures the style of the &#;s and Mad Max: Fury Road (+) creates a unique and bizarre post-apocalyptic dystopia. However, it&#;s the classic fairy tale Cinderella (+) that seems to be offering value.

It may only because I have two functioning ears, but I loathed the Spectre theme song &#;Writings on the Wall&#; by Sam Smith. The horrendous nature of that song is made even more painful since the studio rejected the initial theme song by Radiohead. For that reason, I&#;m willing to pay the for &#;Til It Happens To You&#; from the movie The Hunting Ground.

Lastly, I&#;m going to upset a lot of people by picking against Star Wars: The Force Awakens () for Best Visual Effects. It was great to see the franchise bounce back after the Jar Jar Binks travesty, but Mad Max: Fury Road (+) deserves to win this award. Tangentially, can producers stop adding colon&#;s to movie titles? In my mind there&#;s one only movie to earn that colon &#; Breakin&#; 2: Electric Boogaloo.

[ Don&#;t forget to check out our Razzies Preview ]

What were your favorite movies from the last year? Do you think any films are being undervalued? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at [email protected]

David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at [email protected]


Oscar odds: Favorites and longshots for Hollywood's big night

The best bet of the Oscars? Leonardo DiCaprio

The odds are that Leonardo DiCaprio is going home with the best actor Oscar this Sunday.

The movie he starred in, "The Revenant," is also favored to win Best Picture, according to online betting site

The thriller directed by Alejandro González Iñárritu is currently holding 8-to odds to win. The 20th Century Fox film is followed by "Spotlight" which comes in at to and "The Big Short" at 5-to

If that seems like a wide margin it's nothing compared to the best actor category where DiCaprio is a prohibitive favorite with 1-to odds.

Here's the list of the Oscar odds for the award show's biggest categories, according to PaddyPower:

leonardo dicaprio

Best Picture:

"The Revenant": 8-to

"Spotlight": to

"The Big Short": 5-to-1

"Room": to-1

"The Martian": to-1

"Mad Max: Fury Road": to-1

"Brooklyn": to-1

"Bridge of Spies": to-1

Best Actor:

Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Revenant": 1-to

Eddie Redmayne, "The Danish Girl": to-1

Michael Fassbender, "Steve Jobs": to-1

Bryan Cranston, "Trumbo": to-1

Matt Damon, "The Martian": to-1

Best Actress:

Brie Larson, "Room": 1-to

Saoirse Ronan, "Brooklyn": to-1

Cate Blanchett, "Carol": to-1

Charlotte Rampling, "45 Years": to-1

Jennifer Lawrence, "Joy": to-1

Best Supporting Actor:

Sylvester Stallone, "Creed": 3-to

Mark Rylance, "Bridge of Spies": 5-to-2

Christian Bale, "The Big Short": to-1

Tom Hardy, "The Revenant": to-1

Mark Ruffalo, "Spotlight": to-1

Best Supporting Actress:

Alicia Vikander, "The Danish Girl": 1-to-2

Kate Winslet, "Steve Jobs": 3-to-1

Rooney Mara, "Carol": 7-to-2

Jennifer Jason Leigh, "The Hateful Eight": to-1

Rachel McAdams, "Spotlight": to-1

Related: Oscars make changes to boost diversity amid #OscarsSoWhite backlash

Red carpet coverage of the 88th Annual Academy Awards begins at 7 p.m. ET this Sunday on ABC. The ceremony hosted by Chris Rock begins at p.m.

CNNMoney (New York) First published February 23, AM ET

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Our official odds are derived from the predictions of 27 Expert film journalists along with our seven in-house Editors who cover awards year-round, the Top 24 Users who got the top scores predicting last year&#;s Oscars, the All-Star Users who did the best for the past two years combined and the thousands of entrants in our prediction contest who make up the largest (and often savviest) bloc of predictors.

Subscribe to Gold Derby Breaking News Alerts & Experts’ Latest Oscar Predictions

Our forecasted champs for each category are cited in gold below, and the rest of the nominees are listed in order of their odds to win. Click on any category title to be taken to an overview of that race.

If you haven&#;t made your Oscar predictions yet, there&#;s still time. Click here to visit our predictions center. This year&#;s overall predictions champ will win $, so make your picks NOW!

&#;The Revenant&#; &#; 8/13
&#;The Big Short&#; &#; 11/2
&#;Spotlight&#; &#; 6/1
&#;Room&#; &#; 50/1
&#;Mad Max: Fury Road&#; &#; 50/1
&#;The Martian&#; &#; 80/1
&#;Bridge of Spies&#; &#; /1
&#;Brooklyn&#; &#; /1

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, &#;The Revenant&#; &#; 1/4
George Miller, &#;Mad Max: Fury Road&#; &#; 13/2
Tom McCarthy, &#;Spotlight&#; &#; 40/1
Adam McKay, &#;The Big Short&#; &#; 50/1
Lenny Abrahamson, &#;Room&#; &#; 50/1

Leonardo DiCaprio, &#;The Revenant&#; &#; 1/10
Michael Fassbender, &#;Steve Jobs&#; &#; 40/1
Eddie Redmayne, &#;The Danish Girl&#; &#; 40/1
Bryan Cranston, &#;Trumbo&#; &#; 50/1
Matt Damon, &#;The Martian&#; &#; 50/1


Brie Larson, &#;Room&#; &#; 1/10
Saoirse Ronan, &#;Brooklyn&#; &#; 33/1
Cate Blanchett, &#;Carol&#; &#; 33/1
Charlotte Rampling, &#;45 Years&#; &#; 66/1
Jennifer Lawrence, &#;Joy&#; &#; 80/1

Sylvester Stallone, &#;Creed&#; &#; 1/4
Mark Rylance, &#;Bridge of Spies&#; &#; 12/1
Mark Ruffalo, &#;Spotlight&#; &#; 12/1
Tom Hardy, &#;The Revenant&#; &#; 40/1
Christian Bale, &#;The Big Short&#; &#; 50/1

Alicia Vikander, &#;The Danish Girl&#; &#; 1/4
Kate Winslet, &#;Steve Jobs&#; &#; 7/1
Rooney Mara, &#;Carol&#; &#; 25/1
Jennifer Jason Leigh, &#;The Hateful Eight&#; &#; 50/1
Rachel McAdams, &#;Spotlight&#; &#; 80/1

&#;The Big Short&#; &#; 1/10
&#;Room&#; &#; 28/1
&#;Carol&#; &#; 33/1
&#;The Martian&#; &#; 50/1
&#;Brooklyn&#; &#; 66/1

&#;Spotlight&#; &#; 1/10
&#;Inside Out&#; &#; 28/1
&#;Ex Machina&#; &#; 40/1
&#;Straight Outta Compton&#; &#; 50/1
&#;Bridge of Spies&#; &#; 66/1

Oscar slugfest: Gold Derby editors come out swinging to defend their predictions (Video)

&#;The Revenant&#; &#; 1/10
&#;Mad Max: Fury Road&#; &#; 16/1
&#;Sicario&#; &#; 50/1
&#;Carol&#; &#; 66/1
&#;The Hateful Eight&#; &#; 80/1

&#;Mad Max: Fury Road&#; &#; 6/5
&#;Cinderella&#; &#; 15/8
&#;Carol&#; &#; 15/2
&#;The Danish Girl&#; &#; 20/1
&#;The Revenant&#; &#; 40/1

&#;Mad Max: Fury Road&#; &#; 1/4
&#;The Big Short&#; &#; 15/2
&#;The Revenant&#; &#; 20/1
&#;Star Wars: The Force Awakens&#; &#; 33/1
&#;Spotlight&#; &#; 66/1

&#;Mad Max: Fury Road&#; &#; 1/10
&#;The Revenant&#; &#; 20/1
&#;The Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared&#; &#; 33/1

&#;Mad Max: Fury Road&#; &#; 1/10
&#;The Revenant&#; &#; 25/1
&#;Bridge of Spies&#; &#; 28/1
&#;The Martian&#; &#; 50/1
&#;The Danish Girl&#; &#; 66/1

&#;The Hateful Eight&#; &#; 2/11
&#;Star Wars: The Force Awakens&#; &#; 12/1
&#;Carol&#; &#; 28/1
&#;Sicario&#; &#; 40/1
&#;Bridge of Spies&#; &#; 66/1

&#;Til it Happens to You&#; &#; &#;The Hunting Ground&#; &#; 1/5
&#;Writing&#;s on the Wall&#; &#; &#;Spectre&#; &#; 10/1
&#;Simple Song #3&#; &#; &#;Youth&#; &#; 22/1
&#;Earned It&#; &#; &#;Fifty Shades of Grey&#; &#; 40/1
&#;Manta Ray&#; &#; &#;Racing Extinction&#; &#; 80/1

&#;Mad Max: Fury Road&#; &#; 4/5
&#;The Revenant&#; &#; 13/8
&#;Star Wars: The Force Awakens&#; &#; 25/1
&#;The Martian&#; &#; 66/1
&#;Sicario&#; &#; 80/1

&#;Mad Max: Fury Road&#; &#; 5/6
&#;The Revenant&#; &#; 3/2
&#;Star Wars: The Force Awakens&#; &#; 25/1
&#;The Martian&#; &#; 66/1
&#;Bridge of Spies&#; &#; /1

&#;Star Wars: The Force Awakens&#; &#; 13/10
&#;Mad Max: Fury Road&#; &#; 7/5
&#;The Revenant&#; &#; 7/1
&#;Ex Machina&#; &#; 66/1
&#;The Martian&#; &#; 66/1

Oscars Exclusive behind-the-scenes photos of red carpet construction (Photo Gallery)

&#;Inside Out&#; &#; 1/10
&#;Anomalisa&#; &#; 20/1
&#;Shaun the Sheep Movie&#; &#; 50/1
&#;When Marnie Was There&#; &#; 66/1
&#;Boy and the World&#; &#; 80/1

&#;Amy&#; &#; 1/10
&#;The Look of Silence&#; &#; 28/1
&#;What Happened, Miss Simone?&#; &#; 33/1
&#;Cartel Land&#; &#; 40/1
&#;Winter on Fire&#; &#; 80/1

&#;Son of Saul&#; &#; 1/10
&#;Mustang&#; &#; 18/1
&#;A War&#; &#; 50/1
&#;Embrace of the Serpent&#; &#; 66/1
&#;Theeb&#; &#; 80/1

&#;Sanjay&#;s Super Team&#; &#; 4/7
&#;World of Tomorrow&#; &#; 7/2
&#;Bear Story&#; &#; 8/1
&#;We Can&#;t Live Without Cosmos&#; &#; 50/1
&#;Prologue&#; &#; 50/1

&#;Body Team 12&#; &#; 9/10
&#;Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah&#; &#; 10/3
&#;A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness&#; &#; 11/2
&#;Chau, Beyond the Lines&#; &#; 14/1
&#;Last Day of Freedom&#; &#; 40/1

&#;Ave Maria&#; &#; 8/11
&#;Stutterer&#; &#; 9/2
&#;Shok&#; &#; 9/2
&#;Everything Will Be Okay&#; &#; 25/1
&#;Day One&#; &#; 50/1

Dish all the Oscar races in our red-hot forums with Hollywood insiders

What do you think will win Best Picture this year? 

Make your Oscar predictions using the menu to the right or below. 

You&#;ll compete to win our contest prizes for best picks &#; $ (first place), $ (second place) and $ (third place) in Amazon gift certificates &#; a place of honor on our leaderboard and a starring role in next year&#;s Top 24 Users (the two dozen folks who do the best predicting this year&#;s Oscar nominations). Be sure to read our contest rules.

Meet the guy who won our contest to predict the Oscar nominations last year &#; and learn how he did it and how you can be our next Gold Derby superstar.

Best Picture graphic: AMPAS


Archived Academy Awards Odds

Best Supporting Actor

Daniel KaluuyaJudas and the Black Messiah
Brad Pitt Once Upon a Time inHollywood
Mahershala Ali Green Book
Sam Rockwell Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Mahershala Ali Moonlight
Mark Rylance Bridge of Spies +
JK Simmons Whiplash
Jared Leto Dallas Buyers Club
Christoph Waltz Django Unchained +
Christopher Plummer Beginners
Christian Bale The Fighter
Christopher Waltz Inglorious Basterds
Heath LedgerThe Dark Knight
Javier BardemNo Country For Old Men
George ClooneySyriana+
Tim RobbinsMystic River
Chris CooperAdaptation
Michael CaineThe Cider House Rules+
GoodfellasJoe Pesci+
Hannah and Her SistersMichael Caine+
CocoonDon Ameche+
The Killing FieldsHaing S. Ngor+
Terms of EndearmentJack Nicholson+
An Officer and a GentlemanLouis Gosset Jr+
Ordinay PeopleTimothy Hutton+
JuliaJason Robards+
The Sunshine BoysGeorge Burns
The Godfather Part IIRobert De Niro+
The Paper ChaseJohn Houseman+

Best Supporting Actress

Youn Yuh-JungMinari
Laura Dern Marriage Story
Regina King If Beale Street Could Talk
Allison Janney I Tonya
Viola Davis Fences
Alicia Vikander The Danish Girl
Patricia Arquette Boyhood
Lupita Nyongo 12 Years a Slave
Anne Hathaway Les Miserables
Octavia Spencer The Help
Melissa Leo The Fighter
Mo'Nique Precious
Penelope CruzVicky Cristina Barcelona
Tilda SwintonMichael Clayton+
Rachel WeiszThe Constant Gardener+
Renee ZellweggerCold Mountain
Catherine Zeta-JonesChicago+
Angelina JolieGirl, Interrupted
GhostWhoopi Goldberg
Hannah and Her SistersDianne Wiest+
Prizzi's HonorAnjelica Huston+
A Passage to IndiaPeggy Ashcroft+
Year of Living DangerouslyLinda Hunt+
TootsieJessica Lange+
Melvin and HowardMary Steenburgen+
JuliaVanessa Redgrave+
ShampooLee Grant+
Murder on the Orient ExpressIngrid Bergman+
Paper MoonTatum O'Neal+

Picture 2016 odds best

  • See the odds from open to close to win all the major awards at the Oscars
  • Chloe Zhao&#;s Nomadland won Best Picture at the 93rd Academy awards
  • Learn trends from past years of Academy Awards shows

The 93rd Academy Awards or Oscars threw an elegant party at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood, Los Angeles on April 25th. The graphs below tracked the futures odds to win the major categories by calculating the average from some of the top sportsbooks. Read below to see who emerged victorious on awards night in Los Angeles and at what odds.

Best Picture Top Contenders

Sports Betting Dime
  • [Apr 26]: To no ones surprise, Nomadland captured Best Picture at the 93rd Academy Awards. Nomadland closed at odds to win.
  • [Apr 20]: With less than a week before the 93rd Academy Awards. Nomadland continues to lead the way as the favorite. The Trial of the Chicago 7  is the second favorite with average odds at +
  • [Apr 6]: Odds have increased for every film in the Best Picture category, apart from Nomadland. Chloe Zhao&#;s film&#;s average odds have shortened from to
  • [Mar 16]: With the official nominations revealed the list of contenders to win Best Picture have shortened. Nomadland  is still heavily favored with average odds at  Sound of Metal  is now listed in the odds as a longshot at +
  • [Mar 12]Promising Young Woman has seen their average odds increase from + to +, while Judas and the Black Messiah&#;s average odds shortened from + to +
  • [Feb 12]Nomadland is now the odds-on favorite to win Best Picture at Nomadland  opened at + odds.
  • [Nov19]: Odds still favor Tenet as the favorite to win Best Picture at the Oscars. However, Chloe Zhao&#;s Nomadland is listed as low as + at certain sportsbooks and saw its average odds shorten to +
  • [Mar30]: Opening odds favor Christopher Nolan&#;s upcoming thrilled Tenet at + just ahead of Dune starring Timothee Chalamet at +

Odds to Win Best Picture at 93rd Academy Awards

The Trial of the Chicago 7+
Promising Young Woman+
Judas and the Black Messiah+
Sound of Metal+
The Father+

All odds as of Apr. 20

Past Best Picture Winners

Green Book
The Shape of Water
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
12 Years a Slave

Best Director Top Contenders

Sports Betting Dime
  • [Apr 26]: As a whopping favorite, Chloe Zhao won the award for Best Director for her film Nomadland.
  • [Apr 20]: Chloe Zhao&#;s average odds have significantly shortened from to a week before the awards ceremony to win Best Director.
  • [Apr 6]: Zhao remains a favorite to win Best Director. However, Thomas Vinterberg&#;s average odds have significantly shortened from + to +
  • [Mar 16]: Chloe Zhao remains a huge favorite to win Best Director after the official nominations were revealed. Zhao&#;s average odds have shortened from to
  • [Mar 12]:Promising Young Woman director Emerald Fennell&#;s average odds to win Best Director have shortened significantly from + to +
  • [Feb 12]: Chloe Zhao has taken over the Best Director category. Zhao&#;s average odds have shortened from + to to win the Oscar.
  • [Nov 19]: David Fincher remains the favorite with average odds of +, but Chloe Zhao is not far behind at +
  • [Mar 30]: Listed as a strong odds-on favorite, David Fincher&#;s Mank is the early favorite.

Odds to Win Best Director at 93rd Academy Awards

Chloe Zhao &#; Nomadland
David Fincher &#; Mank+
Lee Isaac Chung &#; Minari+
Emerald Fennell &#; Promising Young Woman+
Thomas Vinterberg &#; Another Round+

Produced by Netflix, Mank, is an American biographical drama film about screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz, and his battles with director Orson Welles over screenplay credit for Citizen Kane.

Best Actor Top Contenders

Sports Betting Dime
  • [Apr 26]: Shockingly enough Anthony Hopkins took home Best Actor for his role in The Father at + odds. Chadwick Boseman was listed at to win Best Actor and was considered a lock for the award.
  • [Apr 20]: Chadwick Boseman remains a heavy favorite at to win Best Actor, but his average odds have lengthened from Anthony Hopkins remains the second favorite at + odds.
  • [Apr 6]: Chadwick Boseman&#;s average odds have shortened from to , but still remains a heavy favorite. Riz Ahmed&#;s average odds have lengthened from + to +
  • [Mar 16]: Although it seems like Chadwick Boseman will be taking home the award for Best Actor at the 93rd Academy Awards, there are still other contenders. Anthony Hopkins is the second favorite at + odds.
  • [Mar 12]: Chadwick Boseman continues to receive praise for his magnificent performance in Ma Rainey&#;s Black Bottom. Boseman&#;s average odds have shortened from to with just over a month before the 93rd Academy Awards.
  • [Feb 12]: Chadwick Boseman has become a massive favorite to win Best Actor over the past few months. Boseman&#;s performance in Ma Rainey&#;s Black Bottom has propelled him from + to odds.
  • [Nov 19]: Anthony Hopkins emerges as the favorite with + odds, while Tom Hanks trails him with average odds of + to win Best Actor at the Oscars.
  • [Mar 30]: There&#;s a four-way tie for opening favorite at odds with Eddie Redmayne, Gary Oldman, Robert Pattinson and Tom Hanks all starring in upcoming pictures.

Odds to Win Best Actor at 93rd Academy Awards

Chadwick Boseman &#; Ma Rainey&#;s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins &#; The Father+
Riz Ahmed &#; Sound of Metal+
Gary Oldman &#; Mank+
Steven Yeun &#; Minari+

Past Best Actor Winners

Joaquin PhoenixJoker
Rami MalekBohemian Rhapsody
Gary OldmanDarkest Hour
Casey AffleckManchester by the Sea
Leonardo DiCaprioThe Revenant
Eddie RedmayneThe Theory of Everything
Matthew McConaugheyDallas Buyers Club

Best Actress Top Contenders

Sports Betting Dime
  • [Apr 26]: Although it seemed like it was a two person race for Best Actress between Carey Mulligan and Viola Davis, it was Frances McDormand who won the award. McDorman won at + odds for her role in Nomadland.
  • [Apr 20]: Carey Mulligan remains favored to win Best Actress, as her odds stay steady around + However, Viola Davis&#; odds continue to shorten just a week before The Oscars at +
  • [Apr 6]: Viola Davis has climbed back to the top in the odds to win Best Actress. For her performance in Ma Rainey&#;s Black Bottom, Davis&#; average odds have shortened from + to +
  • [Mar 16]: Andra Day now has the second shortest odds to win Best Actress. Her average odds sit at + to win the award.
  • [Mar 12]: Carey Mulligan is now the odds-on favorite to win Best Actress at the 93rd Academy Awards. Mulligan&#;s odds have shortened from + to
  • [Feb 12]: Carey Mulligan&#;s performance in Promising Young Woman has be noticed by oddsmakers. Mulligan joins Viola Davis at the top of the odds list at +
  • [Nov 19]: Viola Davis remains the favorite with average odds of + to win Best Actress at the Oscars. Not far behind is Andra Day who starred in The United States vs. Billie Holiday at +
  • [Mar 30]: Opening favorites Viola Davis (), Amy Adams () and Meryl Streep () are the early top three.

Odds to Win Best Actress at 93rd Academy Awards

Carey Mulligan &#; Promising Young Woman+
 Viola Davis &#; Ma Rainey&#;s Black Bottom+
Frances McDormand &#; Nomadland+
Andra Day &#; The United States vs. Billie Holiday+
Vanessa Kirby &#; Pieces of a Woman+

Past Best Actress Winners

Renee ZellwegerJudy
Olivia ColmanThe Favourite
Frances McDormandThree Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Emma StoneLa La Land
Brie LarsonRoom
Julianne MooreStill Alice
Cate BlanchettBlue Jasmine

Best Supporting Actor Top Contenders

Sports Betting Dime
  • [Apr 26]: Daniel Kaluuya won the award for Best Supporting Actor for his role as Fred Hampton in Judas and the Black Messiah. Kaluuya opened as the favorite and closed at odds to win the award before the ceremony started.
  • [Apr 20]: The Best Supporting Actor category continues to have a runaway favorite. Daniel Kaluuya&#;s average odds have shortened substantially from to Sacha Baren Cohen is listed at 11/1, but is narrowly followed by Paul Raci.
  • [Apr 6]: Daniel Kaluuya&#;s average odds have skyrocketed to to win Best Supporting Actor, while Sacha Baren Cohen remains the second favorite at +
  • [Mar 16]: Daniel Kaluuya&#;s performance in Judas and the Black Messiah as Fred Hampton has landed him as the favorite to win Best Supporting Actor at the 93rd Academy Awards.

Odds to Win Best Supporting Actor at 93rd Academy Awards

Daniel Kaluuya &#; Judas and the Black Messiah
Sacha Baron Cohen &#; The Trial of Chicago 7+
Paul Raci &#; Sound of Metal +
Leslie Odom Jr. &#; One Night in Miami+
LaKeith Stanfield &#; Judas and the Black Messiah+

Past Best Supporting Actor Winners

Brad PittOnce Upon A Time In Hollywood
Mahershala AliGreen Book
Sam RockwellThree Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Mahershala AliMoonlight
Mark RylanceBridge of Spies
J.K. SimmonsWhiplash

Best Supporting Actress Top Contenders

Sports Betting Dime
  • [Apr 26]: Youn Yuh-Jung won Best Supporting Actress at the 93rd Academy Awards. Yuh-Jung closed as a favorite to win the award.
  • [Apr 20]: After opening as the favorite Maria Bakalova still trails Youn Yuh-Jung in the odds to win Best Supporting Actress. Yuh Jung&#;s average odds have shortened to , while Bakalova&#;s odds have lengthened to +
  • [Apr 6]: Youn Yuh-Jung has taken a commanding lead in the Best Supporting Actress category as the odds-on favorite. Yuh-Jung&#;s average odds have shortened from + to
  • [Mar 16]: It&#;s a tight race in the Best Supporting Actress category. Maria Bakalova&#;s average odds are at + and Youn Yuh-Jung average odds sit at +

Odds to Win Best Supporting Actress at 93rd Academy Awards

Youn Yuh-Jung &#; Minari
 Maria Bakalova &#; Borat Subsequent Movie Film+
Glenn Close &#; Hillbilly Elegy+
Olivia Coleman &#; The Father+
Amanda Seyfried &#; Mank +

Past Best Supporting Actress Winners

Laura DernMarriage Story
Regina KingIf Beale Street Could Talk
Allison JanneyI, Tonya
Viola DavisFences
Alicia VikanderThe Danish Girl
Patricia ArquetteBoyhood

Best Original Screenplay Top Contenders

Sports Betting Dime
  • [Apr 26]: Despite missing out on Best Picture, Promising Young Woman won Best Original Screenplay at the 93rd Oscars. Promising Young Woman  was the odds-on favorite to win, closing at
  • [Apr 20]: With less than a week before The Oscars, Promising Young Woman&#;s average odds to win Best Original Screenplay have shortened to Meanwhile, The Trial of the Chicago 7 remains the second betting favorite at +
  • [Apr 6]:Promising Young Woman  is the favorite to win Best Original Screenplay at average odds. The Trial of the Chicago 7  is a close second at + average odds.

Odds to Win Best Original Screenplay at 93rd Academy Awards

Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7+
Judas and the Black Messiah+
Sound of Metal+

The Best Original Screenplay category is an award given to the best screenplay not based on previously published material. Parasite  won this award at the 92nd Academy Awards.

Archived Academy Awards odds: ,

OG's comeback to win DOTA 2's TI8 - Against The Odds

Here's who's going to win the Oscars based on the expert odds

US Markets LoadingHMS

leonardo dicaprio bafta the revenant
REUTERS/Toby Melville
The 88th Academy Awards will take place on February 28, and all bets are on. 

Gold Derby has compiled a list of expert predictions on who the night's big winners will be, and as the awards ceremony approaches, the final predictions are rolling in.

"Spotlight" was earlier projected to win best picture, but "The Revenant" has overtaken the film in bets since winning the BAFTA for best film and the Golden Globe for best drama. Its star, Leonardo DiCaprio, is set to win his first Oscar. 

The race for best director is also close. Since winning the Golden Globe and BAFTA for best director, "The Revenant's" director Alejandro G. Iñárritu has passed "Mad Max's" George Miller.

You can find all of the odds here. 

Check out who's at the front of the race below: 

Best Picture — "The Revenant"

the revenant DF R_rgb final
Kimberley French/20th Century Fox

"The Revenant" 5/6
"Spotlight" 4/1
"The Big Short" 4/1
"Mad Max: Fury Road" 66/1
"The Martian" 80/1
"Room" 80/1
"Brooklyn" /1
"Bridge of Spies" /1 

Best Actor — Leonardo DiCaprio

the revenant fn01
Warner Bros.

Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Revenant" 1/10
Michael Fassbender, "Steve Jobs" 50/1
Matt Damon, "The Martian" 50/1 
Bryan Cranston, "Trumbo" 50/1
Eddie Redmayne, "The Danish Girl" 66/1

Best Actress — Brie Larson

Jacob Tremblay and Brie Larson, Courtesy of A24 (2)

Brie Larson, "Room" 1/10
Saoirse Ronan, "Brooklyn" 33/1
Cate Blanchett, "Carol" 50/1
Charlotte Rampling, "45 Years" 66/1
Jennifer Lawrence, "Joy" 80/1

Best Supporting Actor — Sylvester Stallone

Creed Movie
Warner Bros

Sylvester Stallone, "Creed" 1/3
Mark Rylance, "Bridge of Spies" 13/2
Mark Ruffalo, "Spotlight" 10/1
Christian Bale, "The Big Short" 66/1
Tom Hardy, "The Revenant" 66/1

Best Supporting Actress — Alicia Vikander

Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl
Focus Features

Alicia Vikander, "The Danish Girl" 2/7
Kate Winslet, "Steve Jobs" 13/2
Rooney Mara, "Carol" 16/1
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "The Hateful Eight" 66/1
Rachel McAdams, "Spotlight" 80/1

Best Director — Alejandro González Iñárritu, "The Revenant"

Alejandro González Iñárritu
Alberto E. Rodriguez/Getty Images

Alejandro González Iñárritu, "The Revenant" 1/2
George Miller, "Mad Max: Fury Road" 13/5
Tom McCarthy, "Spotlight" 50/1
Adam McKay, "The Big Short" 50/1
Lenny Abrahamson, "Room" /1 

More:FeaturesOscars The RevenantMad Max: Fury Road

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“This is not a joke, Moonlight has won Best Picture.”

In , when the Academy famously mixed up the envelopes for its biggest prize, La La Land producer Jordan Horowitz had to repeatedly reassure everyone—probably even himself—that yes, this was really happening. It was not a joke; Moonlight had won Best Picture.

This was an unbelievable development—but not just because of the card snafu. Moonlight was already a long shot; for it to win at all was shocking. La La Land came into the Academy Awards as a juggernaut, having won most of the big guild awards in the run-up to the ceremony. With minus betting odds to win the Best Picture trophy, it had an implied win probability north of 80 percent, making it a massive favorite. Moonlight, meanwhile, carried plus odds, for a win probability under 20 percent.

The Moonlight win was astounding for other reasons: It was the first Best Picture winner to feature an LGBTQ main character. It was the first winner with an all-black cast. It was the first winner to prominently feature black people but not be about racism. And it was one of the lowest-grossing winners ever. All together, Moonlight’s win is arguably the biggest upset in Oscars history.

The next year, in , another upset happened: The Shape of Water won as a narrow underdog to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. And the next year, again: Green Book beat Roma, the presumptive winner. And the year before Moonlight there was another upset, when Spotlight shocked The Revenant, a strong favorite.

Best Picture Betting Odds

YearBetting FavoriteOddsImplied ProbabilityWinnerOddsImplied Probability
Roma%Green Book%
Three Billboards%The Shape of Water%
La La Land%Moonlight%
The Revenant%Spotlight%
12 Years a Slave%12 Years a Slave--
The Artist%The Artist--
The King's Speech%The King's Speech--
The Hurt Locker%The Hurt Locker--

The above table shows the past 10 Best Picture favorites and winners. In the six years prior to , the Best Picture favorite took home the trophy (per the odds from Sports Odds Checker). Then, chaos: four straight upsets. After years of chalk, the Academy’s Best Picture award is as predictable as Iowa’s caucuses. What is happening that is making the film world’s most prestigious honor so difficult to predict?

One explanation could be the move to an expanded field of Best Picture nominees and a preferential ballot before the Oscars in (for the year in movies). Instead of nominating five films and picking the one with the most votes, the Academy nominates up to 10 films for Best Picture. They then use a form of instant-runoff voting where the film with the fewest votes is eliminated, and those votes get redistributed to whichever film its voters ranked second. Repeat the process until one film crosses the percent threshold, and the Academy has its newest Best Picture.

Many say this process rewards the “least disliked” or “most liked” film—one with broad consensus, but not necessarily a ton of big fans. That may be why the Best Picture and Best Director trophies have diverged so frequently in recent years. In , Argo won Best Picture without director Ben Affleck having even been nominated for the Director award, and the two had different winners for , , , and Those two awards have split only 26 times in 91 years, yet five of those splits have come in the past seven contests.

But can the preferential ballot explain the upsets? The new voting system was established for the awards, and the Best Picture award didn’t go off the rails until If that change in voting procedure had a significant impact on the results, it didn’t become clear until six contests had gone by.

Maybe the voters themselves, not the voting method, are having the biggest impact. Following the #OscarsSoWhite narrative at the ceremony, when all 20 acting nominations went to white actors, the Academy worked to remake its membership. Since then, Academy membership has grown by 35 percent, with a focus on people of color and women. It would be no surprise if that leap in membership had a big impact on voting—something many thought when Moonlight won.

However, despite its efforts, the Academy is still 84 percent white and 68 percent male and has an average age in the late 50s or early 60s, according to a Hollywood Reporter analysis. As April Reign, the diversity advocate who created the #OscarsSoWhite hashtag, told THR: “This still boils down to a popularity contest among older white men in the film industry.”

The answer may involve a combination of factors—but we’ll never know for sure, since the Academy doesn’t release any voting data. One thing is for certain, though: After four straight upsets, no Best Picture front-runner should feel safe.

This year, is the favorite. It has mopped up some of the most illustrious hardware this awards season, winning Best Picture (or the rough equivalent) with the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild, the BAFTA, and the Golden Globes—and the film is poised to sweep most of the Academy’s technical categories. As a result, it comes into Sunday with minus odds (per Bovada), which implies a win probability north of 70 percent.

But it hasn’t won everything. Parasite is in second in betting odds (plus, for a win probability of 25 percent), with wins at the Writers Guild Award (for Original Screenplay) and the Screen Actors Guild (for Ensemble) boosting its candidacy. It’s a critical darling that was generating plenty of Best Picture hype earlier in the year.

And Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood (plus, 11 percent) can’t be counted out. It won the Critics’ Choice Award and the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy. Hollywood has 10 total nominations, tied with and The Irishman for second most (Joker has 11). Brad Pitt is a heavy favorite for Best Supporting Actor, and Leonardo DiCaprio is nominated for Best Actor. It also could battle Parasite in the Original Screenplay category—Hollywood wasn’t nominated for the WGA award because Quentin Tarantino is not a guild member (thanks to a decades-old feud over his writing credit for ’s Natural Born Killers). If Hollywood had competed at the WGAs it may have won, which would have made the film a strong contender for Best Picture.

Having trouble following all that? Here’s your cheat sheet for how the major awards all played out this year:

But which of these awards matter most when it comes to predicting Best Picture? They certainly aren’t created equal—here’s how the various major awards have done in correlating with Best Picture in the preferential balloting era, with the Oscar-winning films in green:

In the past 10 contests, the PGA has been the best predictor, picking eight out of 11 (counting that tie in ) of the winners—73 percent. This makes sense. The PGA is the only major award to use a preferential ballot similar to the one the Academy uses, and the guild has around the same number of members as the Academy (roughly 8,, though only a small fraction overlap in membership). Meanwhile, the DGA award has gone 6-for, tied with the Critics’ Choice trophy—but it’s also an award for Best Directing, not Picture, and it’s been great at predicting the Academy’s Director award (9-for, with the only miss being Argo, which wasn’t nominated at the Oscars). That has both is a good sign, and the BAFTA (5-for) is the cherry on top—even if the Brits have been wrong five years in a row.

Parasite’s wins, by contrast, are much less impressive. The SAG award has hit only four times, and the WGA is all over the place. But those two together could mean something: The last film that won both was Spotlight, and it won Best Picture. SAG has also correctly predicted some historical upsets, including Crash in and Shakespeare in Love in Actors make up the largest branch of the Academy by far, and writers are another sizable chunk. If Parasite has overwhelming support from those two constituencies, it could take the trophy. But that’s a big ifParasite has no individual acting nominations, and a foreign-language film has never won Best Picture.

Meanwhile, Hollywood’s Golden Globe triumph means little—only two of the past 10 Musical or Comedy winners have claimed the top Oscar—but its Critics’ Choice award puts it in the running. That award has gone to the Best Picture six times out of 10, tying it for second with the DGA. How it would have done at the WGAs is the big mystery there.

And still, there are other factors to consider. The first is ’s lack of a nomination for film editing. In the past 40 years, 39 Best Picture winners have had a nomination in that category. However, this flaw may be the least worrisome of ’s concerns, as the one movie that won without an editing nomination was Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance), which shares a one-shot visual style with . Sam Mendes’s technical masterpiece was never positioned to receive an editing nomination in the first place.

is also not nominated for any acting categories. It wasn’t nominated at the SAG awards, either. If it were to win Best Picture, it would be the first film to do so without an acting nomination since Slumdog Millionaire in And since actors make up the largest chunk of the Academy, that’s a massive hurdle to overcome.

Additionally, was late to the scene. It would become the first Christmas release to win Best Picture since Slumdog Millionaire, and this year the Oscars were moved up in the calendar from their usual late-February date. But which way does that cut? Does the reduced runway mean voters will not coalesce around , or that they haven’t had enough time to get sick of it? Fatigue seemed to be a factor in La La Land’s loss three years ago.

Parasite also won Cannes’s Palme d’Or award. While that accolade isn’t typically very predictive of Best Picture, it does highlight another flaw in ’s Best Picture candidacy: It did not premiere at a major film festival. Since The Departed won in , every single Best Picture winner has premiered at one of four film festivals: Cannes, the Venice Film Festival, the Telluride Film Festival, or the Toronto International Film Festival. Parasite premiered at Cannes, as did Hollywood. But premiered at the Royal Command Film Performance, a charity event attended by the British royal family. The last Best Picture winner to be shown there was ’s Titanic. This festival trend feels like it could be a coincidence, but it certainly is weird.

There is no secret sauce that will allow you to beat Vegas or get an edge in your office’s Oscars pool. Cut through all the noise, and it’s clear that every contender has its flaws. So which film will win? Will win despite little attention from the acting and writing wings of the Academy? Can Parasite become the first foreign language film to win just a year after Roma failed to do so? Should Hollywood be counted out after it failed to break through in the pre-Oscars awards season? Or will another of the nine nominated films shock us all?

With recent history in mind, all I’m sure of is that I’m not sure of anything.

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